Author: Avalene Connelly

Tourism is to Tobago what oil is to Trinidad. Or to be more precise, Tourism WAS to Tobago what oil WAS to Trinidad. Tobago’s economy is heavily dependent on what transpires in the tourism industry.  According to Invest Trinidad & Tobago, tourism accounts for almost 50% of GDP and in excess of 56% or workforce is engaged in the industry.  Local sources have however stated that the workforce percentage has dropped considerably over the years to less than 40% currently.

According to Hugh Riley, the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s secretary general, Caribbean Tourism grew by an estimated 7% in 2015 which was much higher than the projected 4-5% and was in fact above the global rate of growth (4.4%).  It marked the second year in a row that the region has done better than the rest of the world and the sixth consecutive year of growth for the Caribbean.

This information is consistent with the Caribbean Lodging Reports of Smith Travel Research (STR), an independent research firm that is recognized by the lodging industry as the standard source of reliable data.  Their reports show increases in Occupancy Rates between year-to-date figures from December 2014 to December 2015 (67.8% to 68.8%), Average Daily Room Rate (US$219.44 to US$229.44) and Revenue Per Available Room ($148.77 to US$157.74).

While separate figures are not reported for Tobago, the figures for Trinidad & Tobago also reflected increases in two of the three key areas – 64.7% to 66.0%, US$159.47 to US$159.32 (marginal decrease) and US$103.24 to US$105.16 respectively.

However, according to the Tourism Development Company of Trinidad & Tobago (TDC), while the Trinidad Occupancy Rate was 67% in 2015, Tobago was below 40% for the fourth consecutive year.  They also advise that after reaching 87,796 international arrivals in 2005 (an increase of around 67% over 2002), total international arrivals to Tobago in 2015 dropped dramatically to 22,435.  As a result of this, “domestic” tourism (i.e. visitors from Trinidad) has become the mainstay of the industry.  The cost of the trip from Trinidad to Tobago return (which is subsidized by the government of Trinidad and Tobago) is TT$300 by air and $100 by ferry.  These visitors therefore save significantly on travel expenses and in 2013 the TDC estimated there were a total of 626,654 “domestic” tourists which represented an increase of almost 60% from 2009.

Despite this recent increase in the domestic tourist, there are ominous external factors that have affected the tourism industry locally.  These include:

• Increased incidence of crime, or the perception of crime, which has resulted on occasion in negative travel advisories by foreign embassies.
• An unacceptable number of tourism-related loans going into default.
• Reluctance on the part of the Banks to lend for Tobago projects.
• Postponement of the promised upgrade of the A.N.R. Robinson International airport.
• Deterioration in supply of most utilities, especially water.

The Government of Trinidad & Tobago, albeit belatedly according to stakeholders, has taken some positive steps.  At the end of June this year, the Prime Minister re-activated his Standing Committee on Tourism and as a result of that meeting, commissioned a report from Tobago on the private sector’s proposal to re-start the island’s tourism thrust.

The rescue of the industry will be based on a proper marketing plan for Trinidad & Tobago on the international front as well as domestic.  The Tourism Development Fund for revitalizing the tourism sector’s small properties (under 50 rooms) has just been offered in Tobago and that will provide TT$250M over three years of funding for tourism-related businesses covering debt restructuring and/or upgrading/refurbishment of rooms.  There will also be a Government Loan Guarantee (GLG) Programme for new projects or for major repair and refurbishment works to existing hotels of over 50 rooms.  Despite this, it has been reported that while 30 applications have been received for financing under the two plans, only 8 have been approved and none for the hotel sector.

While this may appear attractive, it must be remembered that when looking at a troubled or failing asset, it is first necessary to determine why – so as to avoid making the same mistakes twice.  It is only then, can a proper business and marketing plan be created with the right amount of capital and marketing funds to make it work.

Currently, there is very little new development taking place in the local tourism sector.  Some of the developments have either experienced poor results, delays in construction or have been put on hold as a result of the imposition of a land licence on all foreign investment in Tobago.  The only positive development has been the reopening of the Hilton/Vanguard Hotel in Tobago, now trading as the Magdalena Grand Beach & Golf Resort.  THA’s purchase of the failed Manta Lodge in Speyside and the incomplete Sanctuary Resort hotel site in Grafton is yet to provide any new rooms on the market.  The most ambitious new development is the reported  preliminary talks between government and Sandals Resorts about an all-inclusive, 750-room Sandals Resort to be build on the Golden Grove Estate.

Based on all of the above, the Government has a definite vested interest in ensuring that their marketing and development plans for Tobago tourism are successful.  Not only is it time for some much-needed optimism for the tourist industry, not least of all because of the loss of oil revenue and forex to the country as a whole, but because Tobago is brimming with potential for a sustainable tourism industry that many other islands would envy.

Furthermore, Trinidad is the main supplier of goods and services to its sister-isle.  Consequently, because of the low level of foreign imports to support its tourism industry, Tobago succeeds in retaining some 70 cents of every tourist dollar spent on the island, and much of that returns to Trinidad in a country-wide “trickle-down”.   No other island in the Region boasts such a high level of retention, so the revitalisation of the Tobago tourism industry will effectively be an economic benefit to T&T as a whole.

In addition to great natural resources, a rich cultural history, and a space that is yet completely under-developed, Tobago is ripe for transformation into a truly modern, green, sustainable destination that protects its natural heritage, develops its human capital, and promises the visitor a genuine and a rewarding holiday experience.

(Author: Mark Farrell with assistance from Dawn Glaisher, Owner Sea Jade Investments and Director of the Association of Real Estate Agents)

The world’s economy is still struggling to regain momentum. Sluggish growth in advanced economies, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows have resulted in the World Bank revising its 2016 global growth forecast down to 2.4 percent from the 2.9 percent pace it had previously predicted. It goes on to state that, looking ahead, the prospects of global growth remain muted. Also making matters seemingly worse are the increasing number of recent terrorists’ attacks, as well as Brexit (the decision by Great Britain to exit the European Union).

These conditions, coupled with low global energy prices and reduced local energy output, have had a severe impact on the local economy where Real GDP was -1.0 in 2014, -2.1 in 2015 and is forecasted to be -2.3 in 2016. According to the Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago, this anaemic economic performance has brought about declining consumer and business sentiment, as well as an increase in the number of people being retrenched.

All of these factors have resulted in a significant drop in the demand for commercial real estate rentals and it is currently estimated that there are over 300,000 sq. ft. of vacant, commercial office space available for rent in and around Port of Spain. Consequently, there has been a marked decline in rental rates now being quoted which has an adverse effect on the market value of these properties.

As can be expected, market participants in the real estate market appear nervous and the outlook for the immediate future does not look bright. It would seem that the market could be in for a rough period until such time as there is a recovery in energy prices and an improvement in world economic conditions.

Many people ask, exactly what is Market Value? The term has a long definition which can be found at https://www.gafarrell.com/useful-information . Briefly however, it means what a willing buyer would pay a willing seller under normal terms and conditions.

When you are buying or selling a home or maybe going to refinance your mortgage, a valuer is frequently called in to determine the Market Value of the property in question. After inspecting the home and gathering all the relevant data on it, the valuer will then look for sales of properties within the same neighbourhood to ascertain the Market Value of the subject property. To use a simple case, if your property is located within a development of similar homes and some have sold recently at say $1M, then the value of the home is $1M unless some change (positive or negative) has been done to the home.

However, most times, the neighbourhood comprises homes of different sizes, finishes and extras. In these cases, the valuer has to determine the contributory value of the differences and make adjustments accordingly. For example, assume a home sold for $2M and had 2,000 sq.ft. of land more that the home being valued. Then, if the valuer determines that the value of the extra land is $200,000 and that was the only difference, a value of $1.8M would be placed on the home being valued – $2M selling price of the other home less the value of the extra land it had.

It should be pointed out that in arriving at the value of an extra feature, the valuer has to determine what the market (i.e. typical buyers) are paying for that feature and NOT necessarily the cost of the feature. Take the case of a home that sold for $3M and the valuer is valuing a similar home except that the one being valued also has a swimming pool. It is necessary for the valuer to ascertain (by examining other sales in the neighbourhood) the contributory value of a pool in that neighbourhood. Should the valuer determine the contributory value is $150,000, then this figure must be added to the $3M that the other property sold for in order to arrive at the value of the property being valued. The valuer can NOT simply add the cost of a pool (which may be more or less that the $150,000 figure) to the selling price of the other property.

It is therefore very important that a valuer obtain as much information as possible about sales in the neighbourhood of the property that he is valuing. Unfortunately, in Trinidad and Tobago, sales information is considerably more difficult to obtain than in many other countries. Whether you are a buyer, seller or real estate agent, you want a valuation that is as accurate as possible. Consequently, it is in everyone’s best interest to supply the valuer with as much information as possible regarding the actual property as well as details of sales of other properties in the neighbourhood. In addition, when you obtain an opinion of value in a valuation report with which you do not agree, assuming there are no significant factual errors or ommissions about the property, then the best chance of getting the valuer to change the opinion of value is to supply information that support your opinion and which the valuer may have been unaware of. Remember, a valuation report is an opinion of value based on information that the valuer possesses.

Many people are asking if this is a good time to invest in Real Estate seeing that Trinidad & Tobago are in a recession.  Before answering that question, it would be wise to look at some of the advantages of investing in Real Estate while bearing in mind that investments in Real Estate are generally regarded as long-term.

As pointed out in the Association of Real Estate Agents (AREA) Principles of Real Estate classes held each year at Roytec, there are several advantages in such an investment.  Amongst them are:

• There is relatively a fixed supply of land available and in addition, with a growing population, demand is likely to increase over time.
• Real Estate is varied and therefore an investor has many choices, e.g. Land, Residence, Apartment Building, Offices, etc.
• Over the years, Real Estate investments have provided a hedge against inflation
• Assuming a mortgage is obtained, there is a “forced” savings in the mortgage payment and therefore a build-up in equity (i.e. the difference between the value of the property and the mortgage) all other things being equal.
• Many people have become very rich by using leverage to enhance the return on their real estate investments although it can be dangerous at times.

With this in mind, the present situation locally could present some opportunities to make such an investment.  Some of these are:

• Due to the slow-down in the economy, it might be possible to negotiate with developers and contractors. You can ask for extras and upgrades or request a reduction in price
• Even if you are not buying a new home, you can still negotiate. If a home has been on the market for quite some time the seller may now be willing to accept a much lower price due to the current recession.  Take your time in selecting the property you like best and then be prepared to negotiate.  It is also a good idea to get a professional valuation before signing an agreement to purchase as you may be paying too much!
• Even banks may be willing to negotiate slightly with their terms. Call different banks and get their terms before selecting one.  Negotiate for

1. Interest rates, (the higher the rate, the higher the instalment you pay).
2. Term (length) of loan, (the shorter the term, the higher the instalment although you will pay less over the life of the loan).
3. Loan-to-value ratio (the higher the ratio, the more you can borrow – all other things being equal).
4. Management fees (sometimes called negotiation fees).  See if any of the banks will offer you any concessions and under what conditions.

As in all investments, caution is strongly recommended.  Real Estate investing requires a relatively large sum and one has to remember the closing costs.  In addition, economists are forecasting that there may be job cuts throughout Trinidad & Tobago. If you think there is any chance that your job might be in danger, it would be unwise to now go into a long-term debt like a mortgage loan.

It is also important for everyone, especially in today’s fragile economy, to have a nest egg to fall back on.  Experts recommend that you have 3-6 months of expenses put aside for emergencies.  If the cost of investing in real estate will wipe out all your rainy-day funds, you may want to save more before investing.

As you can see from above, while there are many reasons not to buy now, there are also several advantages why buying now might make sense.  Although historical data does not predict what will happen in the future, it may assist in making a decision.  Over the last 20 years, the yield on residential real estate has been in excess of 10% p.a. – despite the downturn in 2008.  In other words, a property purchased in 1996 for $200,000 would now sell for more than $1,300,000.

Finally, when purchasing a home, it is important to remember that while it can be a very good investment, there are other factors involved such as quality of life, pride of ownership, etc.  In the final analysis, the decision is yours and you have to carefully consider your personal circumstances before making a decision.